What Will the Triggering of Article 50 Mean for Property Prices in Scotland?

After the EU Referendum, recriminations and subsequent political infighting, Article 50 was finally triggered on 29 March 2017, marking the start of the process of the United Kingdom leaving the European Union. So, what exactly will ‘Brexit’ mean for the property market in East Central Scotland, Scotland and the UK as a whole?

Isabelle Taylor, writing in The Telegraph, states:

“For most of the country, Brexit will have little effect on house prices. In much of the UK, homebuyers are moving because they need to, because of jobs or an expanding family; this means that prices will hold up in much of those areas.

“A buoyant property market depends on the UK’s economic health, which is difficult to forecast. If the pound weakens further, inflation surges, and interest rates are raised, the capacity for house price growth would be reduced.

“Equally, if Brexit negotiations are very successful, economic growth continues to remain positive, and confidence is boosted, house prices could increase earlier and at a faster rate than initially thought.”

Commenting on the ‘Brexit effect’ in their economic dashboard for April, The Guardian:

“…retail sales have dropped, inflation is at its highest for more than three years, wages are falling in real terms and Britain’s trade performance has deteriorated. But unemployment remains low, house prices continue to edge up and businesses are expanding.

“…unemployment remains low, the housing market is steady, stock markets are near record highs and business activity continues to rise – albeit at a slower pace.”

Looking a little closer to home, the ESPC seems to share the confidence of both The Telegraph and The Guardian when it comes to the effect that Brexit might have on the local housing market.

Commenting on Brexit’s likely effect on property prices in Edinburgh and the Lothians, Maria Botha-Lopez said:

“In the first quarter of 2017, the residential housing market across east central Scotland remained impervious to the uncertainties surrounding Brexit, the triggering of Article 50 and initial steps taken by the Scottish government to seek a second referendum on independence.

“As has been the case over the last year, we are in a seller’s market. This means higher average selling prices, a shorter time to sell, and a likelihood for the selling price to achieve or exceed the Home Report valuation, particularly for those selling highly sought after homes in areas with high buyer demand.”

For a while now, we have been saying that the effect of Brexit on property prices in Scotland is most likely to be limited to the effect that the UK’s subsequent departure from the European Union may have on the wider economy in Scotland.

MOV8 Real Estate Founder, Robert Carroll, states:

“Since the so-called ‘Brexit’ referendum result, we have continued to see a property market that is delivering excellent results for sellers, with great mortgage product availability, low interest rates and high demand leading to the levels of property sales in Scotland being at a six year high.

“Property is generally viewed as a ‘safe’ investment, and Scotland’s relative insulation from volatility in the City of London should ensure that Scotland continues to remain an attractive option for homebuyers and investors both at home and from the rest of the UK.

”It remains to be seen what effect the negotiations with the EU, following the triggering of Article 50, will have on the wider economy in Scotland and the UK. However, it seems that house prices continue to be more closely aligned with the wider socio-political outlook of the country and that, as long as the wider economy, earning prospects and levels of employment in Scotland are not negatively affected by the triggering of Article 50, this event in isolation is unlikely to have any sort of negative effect on the level of property sales nor property prices in Scotland.”

If you are selling your home or investment property in 2017, please do get in touch with us by calling 0345 646 0208 (Option 1) or by emailing [email protected] to organise a free valuation of your home or to get a full, transparent breakdown of the costs of selling your home. Our expert Valuation Department can help you with suggestions to maximise the appeal of your home to buyers and get the best possible price if you are selling.


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